This week instead of picking 3 games from both the NCAA and the NFL, I will try my luck at pro handicapping glory and select every single NFL game against the spread (ATS) and see where it takes me. I have had success with my past blogs, striking well over 50%, meaning money was indeed made. I will not offer parlay recommendations, just single ATS picks, leaving it up to you to decide your favourites, because parlays are truly where the money is made. Let's do it.
Thursday
Denver (-1) @ Arizona
Sometimes betting is about feelings, and this one feels funny. I am writing this around 5:30 pm on Thursday night, and up until about 4 pm, this line was at -3 for Denver. The Cardinals are growing slowly around rookie Josh Rosen, but an increase in David Johnson's workload is definitely required. Given that the Broncos are not world beaters, lets take the home 'dogs here. Pick: CARDINALS
Sunday
Tennessee @ Los Angeles (C) (-7)
Good grief Tennessee has been shocking at some points this year, and the Chargers have not quite been what anyone expected yet. This line is a little large but a touchdown gets a refund and although StubHub Stadium has a horrible vibe to it, I'll take the home field "advantage". Pick: CHARGERS
Houston @ Jacksonville (-5)
This game is intriguing, maybe as intriguing as it gets in the AFC. Houston was an edgy Super Bowl pick at the start of the year but has really been bad so far. Jacksonville just got abused in Dallas, so that defence will be hungry again at home. 5 points is enough to make me think about Houston, and if it is going to be a tight game, I like the skill position players on Houston to do the trick. Not sure who will prevail, but I like the Texans +5. Pick: TEXANS
Carolina @ Philadelphia (-5)
Philly is in desperate need of a "prove 'em" game. Despite being Super Bowl Champions, they are slacking this season, but we all know the team they are. "The Link" is a tough place to go on the road and win, and I think a spread anything less than 7 gives me the hint I need to take the birds. Pick: EAGLES
Minnesota (-4) @ New York Jets
Trap game alert!! Why is this spread only 4? Because the NFL is going to NFL. This might be the hardest one to sit down and study because the obvious pick is the Vikings, but its toooo obvious. Dalvin Cook's health weighs into this selection as well, and anytime I see -3.5 or -4 I get uneasy. However, the Vike's have strung together some quality wins, including at Philly, so I think the train keeps rolling. Pick: VIKINGS
New England (-3.5) @ Chicago
Why all the tough spreads this week? The Pats are the Pats but their defence is leaky, the Bears have weapons all over the field and not to mention they will be hungry coming off a tough OT loss last week in south beach. Again, this is hard to say who will get the W, but a game winning field goal is not out of the realm. Give me the points. Pick: BEARS
Buffalo @ Indianapolis (-7.5)
Wow is Nate Peterman ever bad at football. His antics cost his team another win with a pick 6 late in Houston. Unfortunately for the table breakers, it looks like Josh Allen is not playing again this week, making this a sky high spread for a mediocre Colts team. The Colts can score though, so I like them here, even though I HATE -7.5 point spreads. Pick: COLTS
Cleveland @ Tampa Bay (-3.5)
The Bucs have come back down to earth since their high flying start, and Cleveland is still trying to prove that they are not a joke anymore. Given these ideas, this should be a fun one. Cleveland has been in several close games this season, and I think this can be much the same. If the spread was 3 I would be taking Tampa, but that hook on the 3 is something to worry about. Pick: BROWNS
Detroit (-3) @ Miami
Lions are fresh off a bye, Miami is undefeated at home but marching out journeyman laughing stock Brock Osweiler. Thankfully, the Vegas Gods have supplied a flat 3 spread, so I think this pick is easy. Lions with the field goal, even though I can see this pushing with a 3 point win. a 3.5 line would test your mind into picking which Osweiler you think will take the field Sunday. Pick: LIONS
New Orleans @ Baltimore (-2.5)
I might just be a hater, but I do not think Baltimore is all that they are cut out to be so far this year. Gone are the days of their home brilliance, and quite frankly their best weapons are on offence. I find it odd that the birds are favourites here, because the Saints have shown signs of dominance, and they are coming of a bye. Give me the points. Pick: SAINTS
Dallas @ Washington (-2)
Washington is officially the most average NFL team we have seen in forever. You ready for this stat? the Redskins are 1-1 in their last 2, 2-2 in their last 4, 3-3 in their last 6, 5-5 in their last 10, 6-6 in their last 12, 7-7 in their last 14, 10-10 in their last 20, 18-18-1 in their last 37 and finally, 28-28-1 in their last 57 (!!!!). Cowboys just stapled the Jags, and the Redskins won last week, so they HAVE to lose according to that stat, right? Pick: COWBOYS
Los Angeles Rams (-10) @ San Francisco
The Rams have failed to cover their last two games, getting an unlucky backdoor cover by the Broncos last week, and I think this line is too high as we look towards their trip up the California coast. 10 points is rarely covered in this league, and a flat 10 is a good push number for a team that showed great effort last week in cheese land. Pick: 49ERS
Cincinnati @ Kansas City (-6)
Well, Mahomes finally lost a game for the Chiefs, but it sure was entertaining. In what was potentially an AFC title preview, the Pats rallied to defeat the Chiefs, making this homecoming game a big one for KC. The Bengals have surprised me and many others, so pound the over on this game (58 Points), but give me KC and the touchdown+ cushion. Pick: CHIEFS
Monday
New York Giants @ Atlanta (-6)
Father Time was alarming Eli Manning that time was up about 3 years ago, but the Giants front office kept hitting the snooze button. That offence is dynamite without Eli, and Atlanta seems to be coming around. They lost Devonta Freeman for the year (most likely) but Tevin Coleman might be the best backup in the league so they are fine. I cannot see the Giants winning on the road here, and I think its mighty generous to give us bettors a touchdown+ here. Pick: FALCONS
** Spreads may change as the week goes on and as the money files in. Spreads are as of 7:30 pm on Thursday. Good luck!**
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